September 2023 Monthly Outlook - Seasonally Weak Period
August was a down month overall for stocks, but after falling almost 5% in the early part of the month, stocks rallied into month end and finished down only 1.6% (S&P 500). Bonds also saw declines during August as interest rates increased from 3.96% at the end of July to 4.17% at the end of August (US 10yr Treasury).
Meanwhile, the real economy appears to continue to chug along – even accelerating! – while inflation has dropped a great deal versus a year ago.
We are in the seasonally weakest period for stocks, both in terms of history since the financial crisis in 2008-2009 and during the 3rd year in the Presidential Cycle. The first chart below shows that over the last 15 years, August and September are 2 of the weakest months for stocks, with only 47% of the last 15 August’s and 53% of the last September’s finishing the month higher. The second chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 during each year of the last six Presidential Cycles (blue line) and where we are today in 2023 (red line). Notice in the red box that the blue line goes sideways to down from now through close to the end of the 3rd year, when it again starts rising nicely.
With the economy doing ok but the markets in a weak period, we remain positive in our overall allocations to stock and bonds. We have been and will continue to make adjustments within our stock and bond allocations to sectors/industries that are doing better than the overall market.
I hope you find this report informative. Please feel free to share it with family, friends and colleagues.
September Calendar of Events (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)
- September is National Suicide Prevention month – let’s look out for friends and loved ones having a hard time in 2023
Sept 4th Labor Day
Sept 11th Patriot Day- honoring those who lost their lives on 9/11/01. It’s the 21st anniversary of that fateful day. Hard to believe.
Sept 15th Rosh Hashana begins – wishing all our family, friends, and colleagues of the Jewish faith Shanah tovah
Sept 23rd Autumn begins – let’s pray it doesn’t include another covid spike
Sept 24th Yom Kippur begins - G’mar chatima tova
Sept 25th National Daughter’s Day – I will celebrate my 3 awesome daughters Satya, Ryan and Caryn and my 2 amazing granddaughters Isys & Naomi
Sept 29th National Coffee Day – one of my favorite days !
Sources: StockCharts.com, All Star Charts, First Trust
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