Broker Check

September 2023 Monthly Outlook - Seasonally Weak Period

September 06, 2023

August was a down month overall for stocks, but after falling almost 5% in the early part of the month, stocks rallied into month end and finished down only 1.6% (S&P 500).  Bonds also saw declines during August as interest rates increased from 3.96% at the end of July to 4.17% at the end of August (US 10yr Treasury).

Meanwhile, the real economy appears to continue to chug along – even accelerating! – while inflation has dropped a great deal versus a year ago.

We are in the seasonally weakest period for stocks, both in terms of history since the financial crisis in 2008-2009 and during the 3rd year in the Presidential Cycle. The first chart below shows that over the last 15 years, August and September are 2 of the weakest months for stocks, with only 47% of the last 15 August’s and 53% of the last September’s finishing the month higher.  The second chart shows the performance of the S&P 500 during each year of the last six Presidential Cycles (blue line) and where we are today in 2023 (red line).  Notice in the red box that the blue line goes sideways to down from now through close to the end of the 3rd year, when it again starts rising nicely.

With the economy doing ok but the markets in a weak period, we remain positive in our overall allocations to stock and bonds.  We have been and will continue to make adjustments within our stock and bond allocations to sectors/industries that are doing better than the overall market.


I hope you find this report informative.  Please feel free to share it with family, friends and colleagues.


September Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • September is National Suicide Prevention month – let’s look out for friends and loved ones having a hard time in 2023


Sept 4th           Labor Day

Sept 11th         Patriot Day- honoring those who lost their lives on 9/11/01.  It’s the 21st anniversary of that fateful day.  Hard to believe.

Sept 15th         Rosh Hashana begins – wishing all our family, friends, and colleagues of the Jewish faith Shanah tovah  

Sept 23rd         Autumn begins – let’s pray it doesn’t include another covid spike

Sept 24th         Yom Kippur begins - G’mar chatima tova

Sept 25th         National Daughter’s Day – I will celebrate my 3 awesome daughters Satya, Ryan and Caryn and my 2 amazing granddaughters Isys & Naomi

Sept 29th         National Coffee Day – one of my favorite days !  



Sources:, All Star Charts, First Trust



Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.


Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.


Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.


Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.