Broker Check

October 2023 Monthly Outlook - 'It Often Rhymes'

October 06, 2023

Well September was weak in the financial markets,  as I expected it to be.  Interest rates continue to creep higher, increasing the headwinds for stocks and simultaneously lowering bond prices. October has historically been a weak month for stocks too, but it has also marked significant market lows that are followed by strong gains into the end of the year.  This is especially true in pre-presidential election years.  The chart below shows the S&P 500 in every pre-presidential election year back to 1950 (blue line) and where we are in 2023 (red line).  Notice how the blue line dips from September into October and then moves higher through November and December. Note how 2023 has tracked this historical pattern reasonably closely.

Mark Twain once said that “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.”

As long as the S&P 500 holds above 4,200, the uptrend for the year remains intact and the odds of a good finish to the year are reasonably good.  If it fails to hold that level, then I think history will not be rhyming in 2023 and some additional downside is likely.  

We continue to monitor your portfolio and the markets closely and will take appropriate action based on what the market tells us.

One wildcard is the dysfunction in Washington.  While the government shutdown was avoided at the end of September, the craziness in the House of Representatives yesterday increases the likelihood that we will face another government shutdown again on November 17th when the current agreement terminates.  This uncertainty is not good for financial markets.  So we are paying close attention to how this unfolds.

Hopefully this report is informative for you.  Please let us know if you have any questions or concerns.


October Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • October is Breast Cancer Awareness and Domestic Violence Awareness month. 


October 7th        7th anniversary of purchasing our office building – we’d love to have you come for a visit   - 141 W Main Street Rockaway

October 9th      Columbus Day

October 15th  Medicare open enrollment    thru December 7th - you can switch from original Medicare to Medicare Advantage, or vice versa. You can also switch from one Medicare Advantage plan to another, or from one Medicare Part D (prescription drug) plan to another, or drop your Medicare Part D coverage altogether. Please call us if you have any questions about your options.   

October 26th   National Pumpkin Day – Why is this not in November around Thanksgiving ?         

October 31st    Halloween




Sources:  All Star Charts,



Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

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