Broker Check

March 2024 Monthly Outlook - Resilient

March 01, 2024

I hope this note finds you well.

The financial markets and the US economy continue to be resilient.  After eclipsing the 5,000 mark on the S&P 500 early in February, stocks pulled back on a CPI inflation report that showed the decline in inflation had slowed in January. But that pull back stayed above key levels of support and stocks subsequently moved higher again.  Interest rates moved higher, hurting the value of bonds, during the month.  In spite of the high interest rates the job market remains strong and GDP is holding up nicely.

So then, at or near new record highs for stocks, the question is now: what’s next? Clearly the market is shouldering its way through high interest rates and persistent inflation.  Much of the bullishness in the market depends on the lowering of interest rates in order to boost the economy further, and paradoxically, it remains the case that “bad news” on economic metrics will translate to “good news” in terms of interest rate levels. Whether the Fed finds it prudent to move interest rates lower is very much in question.  We will get a sense of their thinking on March 20th after their next meeting.

The negative divergence I noted in last month’s Outlook remains – the stock index is moving higher (green line) but the number of individual stocks moving higher is declining.  Time will tell if more individual stocks start moving higher or the index starts moving lower.

Please give us a call if you have any questions or concerns.

I want to say a big THANKS to the following clients who donated to Memorial Sloan Kettering through my Cycle for Survival participation.  I will be matching each of their donations so as a Directional Wealth family we make as big an impact as possible:  Jessie M, Marcellene T, Mira D, Ray C, Bill R, Linda N.  The ride is March 2nd – I will let you know how it goes

 

March Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

March is Women’s History Month.  Please says thanks to all the important women in your life.

March 8th                       International Women’s Day

March 10th                    Daylight Savings begins – Spring forward

March 17th                    St Patrick’s Day

March 20th                    Spring begins in US 

March 31st                         Easter Sunday. 

 

Sources:  Stockcharts.com, Zacks Advisors Insights

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