I hope everyone is well and gearing up for some summer fun. My oldest granddaughter, Isys, will be visiting for a few weeks this summer and interning in my office.
Our transition to Kestra is proceeding apace, and most of you have received the forms and completed them. Others have received the forms but have not yet signed off. Please call me if you have any questions on the forms. Some of you will receive your forms this week. Any significant transition is bound to run into issues no matter how well you plan in advance. Our transition has been no different.
We are grateful for your patience with this process and your continued confidence in us.
Now on to the Monthly Outlook.
May was a wild month in the financial markets. The month started strong but then sold off hard during the middle of the month before bouncing back in the last couple of days to end May almost exactly where it started.
The immediate question is whether the low hit on May 20th (3,810 on the S&P 500) was the bottom for this declining market. There’s no way to know yet whether the recent rebound in stocks is a true turning point for the market. Big short-term bounces like this occur both at major bottoms but also during bear market rallies, so it’s too early to tell if this was “smart money” buying or a “fools rush in” kind of rally.
We are also heading into one of the weakest months for the stock market over the last 20 years.
Source: Bespoke Investment Group
Global markets are in the beginning of a fundamental shift after a nearly 15-year period defined by low interest rates and stable economic and geopolitical environments.
“It’s an extraordinary moment; we have our first pandemic in 100 years. We have our first invasion in Europe in 75 years. And we have our first inflation around the world in 40 years. When you look at the combination, the intersection of the pandemic, of the war, of the inflation, it signals paradigm shift, the end of 15 years of financial accommodation and the next era to come.” Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley Co-President.
Our outlook is that the probability that the recent rebound in stocks is a bear market rally and likely to turn lower again is higher than the probability that the rebound is a true turning point and the market continues to move higher. As such, we continue to maintain a higher than normal allocation to cash and a tilt towards dividend paying stocks over growth (tech) investments.
Please reach out if you have any questions or concerns.
Again, thanks for continuing to allow us to work with you on your financial needs.
June Calendar of Events (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)
- June is LGBTQ Pride Month. I’m an incredibly proud father of a daughter in an awesome same sex marriage. So let’s all work towards acceptance and inclusion of people regardless of their sexual orientation.
June 14th Flag Day
June 19th Father’s Day – wishing all father’s, grandfathers, and great grandfathers a wonderful day.
June 21st Summer begins. Enjoy it safely
Sources: Bespoke Investment Group, CNBC.com, Morgan Stanley
Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
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