Broker Check

December 2023 Monthly Outlook - Santa Claus Rally?

December 05, 2023

November was a strong month in the financial markets.  Stocks rallied nicely from the October low as inflation indicators continued to show declines.  This decline in inflation took pressure off interest rates, which declined from 5% on October 23rd to 4.35% by the end of November.   This means bonds had gains in November as well. See charts below:

 

So where do we go from here?  We have had a nice bounce from the October lows but we are now pressing against a strong band of resistance around 4,600 on the S&P 500 (see red box)

As you can see from the chart, this level was an area where stocks hit this resistance zone and rolled over 4 separate times going back to February 2022.  I would not be surprised to see a short-term pullback into the green box area (around 4,400 on the S&P 500) before the current uptrend resumes.   

Preview 2024. 

 Election Day 2024 is now less than a year away. The chart below shows Presidential election years going back to 1949.  These years have averaged a positive return of

approximately 6%.  Let’s see what happens in 2024.

  

I hope you find this information helpful.  Please share it with family, friends and colleagues.

We wish you and your loved ones a happy and joyful holiday season and a very Happy New Year.

 

December Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  • December is Universal Human Rights Day.  Let’s pray that all people, regardless of race, religion, gender, or nationality  can learn to treat others as we all wish to be treated.

 

December 7th            Hanukkah begins -   Chag Urim Sameach - Wishing all peace and light this holiday season

December 10th           Human Rights Day   -  I have cherished the ideal  of a democratic and free society... it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die. - Nelson Mandela

December 19th           Christian’s birthday

December 21st                Winter Solstice    -       The shortest day of the year and the start of winter

December 25th           Merry Christmas – have a wonderful holiday.  Let’s all remember the true significance of this day - the birth of Christ. 

December 26th           Kwanzaa starts – let’s all celebrate African-American culture

 


Sources: StockCharts.com, Yardeni Research, Wyckoff Analytics

 

 

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