November was a positive month in the financial markets, with both stocks and bonds gaining in value as interest rates declined. On the final day of the month, stocks (basis S&P 500) finally eclipsed it’s downtrend line since the start of the year (see purple trend line and pink circle on chart below). This trend line served to stop previous rally attempts this year.
The question right now is, can the bulls maintain these levels and then push the market higher or will the bears roar back and drive the market down as they have done several times this year. That’s why I included the image below – it is a battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the bulls take charge we likely move up to the 4,350 area (grey line on chart) before hitting the next battleground. If the bears stop the bulls here, then we likely see a decline back to the 3,500 area.
The bulls have a couple of things going for them. December is historically a good month for stocks. There are signs inflation is starting to ease up and interest rates are trending down.
Personally I’m rooting for the bulls and a Santa Claus rally. However, we are waiting to see who takes charge right now before following the herd.
I hope your Thanksgiving was wonderful and wishing you and your loved ones a very happy holiday season and a Happy New Year.
December Calendar of Events (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)
- December is Universal Human Rights Day. Let’s pray that all people, regardless of race, religion, gender, or nationality can learn to treat others as we all wish to be treated.
December 10th Human Rights Day - I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society... it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die. - Nelson Mandela
December 19th Christian’s birthday
December 18th Hanukkah begins - Chag Urim Sameach - Wishing all peace and light this holiday season
December 21st Winter Solstice - The shortest day of the year and the start of winter
December 25th Merry Christmas – have a wonderful holiday. Let’s all remember the true significance of this day - the birth of Christ.
December 26th Kwanzaa starts – let’s all celebrate African-American culture
Best regards,
Jim
Sources: StockCharts.com
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