Our Monthly Outlook

October 2019 Monthly Outlook - The Right Question

October 2, 2019

The right question, at this stage, is not if we will have a recession in the US, but when.  The right time to prepare for potential difficulties in the economy and financial markets is when conditions are still good – like now.

The current US economic expansion entered its 11th  year in July 2019, the longest expansion in history.  However, starting in June 2019 the US economy is showing signs of slowing. This can be seen in the chart below, which shows the LEI leveling off over the last few months. Economic indicators around the world continue to point to a slowdown in the global economy as shown in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development LEI chart.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s not time to sound the alarm - yet.  The US remains the “cleanest dirty shirt” with economic growth slowing to around 2% per year.

Specifically, I’m watching job growth, which has slowed over the last 3 months.  We get the September jobs report on 10/4. I’m also watching how the trade wars are affecting sentiment.  In September, consumer confidence fell sharply, with a near record one-third of consumers surveyed negatively mentioning trade policies.  Trade is also affecting business sentiment, with 65% of global CFOs viewing trade policy as a negative for their organizations. But these CFOs also felt the US economy was stable.

On the investment front, I am watching corporate profits, which will start to be reported for the 3rd quarter next week.  Perhaps more importantly will be what corporations say about the profit outlook going forward. This will likely have the biggest impact on financial markets in the near-term.

The right question is “when?”.  We are preparing as though the “when” is sooner rather than later.  We are doing this by staying diversified, tightening up risk controls and staying focused on our long-term plan.  Please call if you have any questions or concerns.

We hope you find this report informative.  Please share it with anyone who you feel would benefit from the information.

 

 

 

October Calendar of Events   (comments and additions for future months are always welcome)

  •          October is Breast Cancer Awareness and Domestic Violence Awareness month. 

 

October 7th        3rd anniversary of purchasing our office building – we’d love to have you come for a visit   - 141 W Main Street Rockaway

October 8th       Yom Kippur - G'mar Hatima Tova to our clients, colleagues, family and friends who celebrate

October 14th      Columbus Day

October 15th  Medicare open enrollment    thru 12/7/18 - you can switch from original Medicare to Medicare Advantage, or vice versa. You can also switch from one Medicare Advantage plan to another, or from one Medicare Part D (prescription drug) plan to another, or drop your Medicare Part D coverage altogether. Please call us if you have any questions about your options.   

October 28th   National Chocolate Day – I’m going for Godiva, how about you?          

October 31st    Halloween

 

 

 

Sources:  CNBC.com, Blackstone, Nottingham Advisors, Charles Schwab

 

 

 

Although information herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, its accuracy and completeness are not asserted. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the judgment of the financial advisor as of the dates indicated and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. Diversification does not ensure a profit or ensure against a loss. There is no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful.  Past performance is no assurance of future results.

Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. Please see a prospectus containing this and other information. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Information provided should not be construed as legal or tax advice.  You should discuss any tax or legal matter with the appropriate professional.